On January 1, 2026, PostNord will cease to deliver mail in Denmark and concentrate on parcel logistics. This radical decision comes against a backdrop of massive decline in the volume of letters exchanged. In twenty years, the number of letters delivered in the country has fallen by over 90%, reaching a critical threshold of six letters per inhabitant in 2024. This change will result in the loss of 1,500 jobs out of a total of 4,500, and raises the question of the viability of the universal postal service in a world dominated by digital communication.
Digitization, a gas pedal of decline
The transition to all-digital has been particularly rapid in Denmark, driven by the government, which has massively encouraged the use of digital technology for administrative communications. At the same time, the abolition of the universal service obligation for PostNord has accelerated the movement, leaving the field open to private competition. The distributor DAO has already taken over part of the distribution for public services, and could extend its offer to private individuals.
A Europe-wide trend
Denmark is not an isolated case. Deutsche Post, Germany's incumbent postal operator, has announced the elimination of 8,000 jobs to cut costs in the face of falling mail volumes. In Germany, the digitization of administrative services and corporate communications has led to a steady decline in postal mail, forcing the operator to review its business model. Like PostNord, Deutsche Post is relying on the parcel logistics sector, which is growing rapidly with the explosion of online commerce. This transformation of the postal sector raises the question of how to finance the universal service, which increasingly relies on parcel revenues and public subsidies.
France is experiencing a similar trend. In 2008, 18 billion letters were distributed in the country. By 2024, this figure has fallen to 6 billion, representing an average annual decline of 6-8%. To compensate for this decline, La Poste regularly increases the price of stamps, also with an average annual increase of between 6 and 8%. This strategy enables sales to be stabilized despite falling volumes, but raises the question of long-term sustainability for users and businesses.
What does the future hold for Europe's postal services?
The gradual disappearance of paper mail seems unavoidable in the face of the rise of digital solutions. The key issue remains accessibility for the most vulnerable populations, notably the elderly. While some countries are adapting their models by liberalizing the market, others are maintaining a more rigid framework. Changes in regulations and consumer expectations will determine the pace at which this transformation continues in the years to come.
